Rick Perry meets with voters before a church service at the Lutheran Church of Hope in West Des Moines, Iowa, on Sunday. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
By Joe Garofoli
San Francisco Chronicle Staff Writer
Waukee, Iowa ? Over the past year, every top Republican candidate except Mitt Romney has visited the nondenominational Point of Grace Church in Waukee, where 1,200 people in a town of 12,641 attend Sunday services on its 26-acre campus.
Even after seeing the candidates up close, those inside the 60,000-square-foot church provide a snapshot of how divided Iowa?s powerful evangelical Christian voters remain in the last hours before Tuesday?s presidential caucuses: Jeff Mullen, Point of Grace?s politically connected lead pastor, is supporting Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann; his father, Wayne, who ministers to seniors at the church, is a Newt Gingrich guy.
Unlike in 2008, when evangelical voters made up 60 percent of the GOP turnout in Iowa and coalesced behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee?s victorious run, there is no such consensus this time.
Instead, they?re splintered, torn between their heads and their hearts. And while that division may weaken their ability to push any one candidate to victory Tuesday, it has had the effect of pulling all of the candidates further to the right on social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage in an effort to woo them.
The Iowa Poll conducted for the Des Moines Register found that 25 percent of religious conservatives support former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, 20 percent back former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and 16 percent support Texas Rep. Ron Paul. Bachmann, Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry all have support in the low double digits.
Among likely caucus-goers, Romney and Paul are in a statistical tie for the lead, while Santorum ? riding a wave of late-breaking evangelical support ? jumped into third place, according to the poll.
Only a third of those expected to caucus on Tuesday identify themselves as evangelicals, according to the Iowa Poll, which accurately predicted the Huckabee victory four years ago. And 41 percent said their mind could be changed by Tuesday.
The main beneficiary from this division would be Romney, who may be able to win Tuesday?s caucus with roughly the same amount of support he had four years ago when he lost to Huckabee after spending $10 million in the state. This year, he has spent roughly one-third of that.
?If religious conservatives are this divided on Tuesday, then Romney will win the Iowa caucuses,? said Bob Vander Plaats, president of the Family Leader, a conservative evangelical-dominated organization influential in Iowa politics.
Vander Plaats backs Santorum, a favorite of religious conservatives who had 15 percent overall support in Saturday?s Iowa Poll after spending the entire campaign in the low single digits.
?The one sure thing about Tuesday is that there is no one sure thing about Tuesday,? said Jeff Mullen, who attended a meeting of top Iowa pastors hoping to unite behind a single candidate. He didn?t participate in other such meetings, saying ?trying to get all the pastors to vote for one candidate is like herding cats.?
Even after seeing the candidates in person ? not to mention being inundated with TV ads, robocalls and campaign literature ? many evangelicals are still undecided.
They?re wrestling with what their hearts want them to do ? support a candidate like Bachmann, Perry or Santorum, who may share their values but don?t have a lot of poll or financial support ? and what their brains tell them they should do- back Romney, who has plenty of both, but causes skepticism among socially conservative Christians.
?My heart says Perry,? said Rick Cox, a 51-year-old who owns a small trucking business in nearby Grimes. But after seeing Perry fumble repeatedly in the debates, ?I?m just not sure he is up to the challenge.?
Cox is thinking about supporting Romney on Tuesday. But as someone whose faith informs ?more than 50 percent? of who he votes for, Cox is leery of supporting someone who has flip-flopped positions on abortion rights and same-sex marriage.
Lori Hommer, a Christian counselor, is toggling between Gingrich, ?who has a lot of experience,? and Santorum, ?who is more conservative.?
Perry in particular has tried to reach out to religious conservatives, largely through the $3 million he has spent on advertising in Iowa in December alone. But that has meant taking even more conservative positions that risk a backlash with more moderate voters. Perry changed his position on abortion to say that he now opposes it in all cases ? even for rape and incest.
And Perry appeared in a much-ridiculed and factually false 30-second ad in which he said there is ?something wrong in this country? when gays are allowed to openly serve in the military but schoolchildren can?t ?openly celebrate Christmas or pray in school.? It has been ?disliked? by a near-record amount of viewers on YouTube.
He is not alone in making stark appeals to religious conservatives.
Perry joined Santorum, Gingrich, Paul and Bachmann in signing the Susan B. Anthony List?s ?pro-life pledge.? The promise requires them to nominate only conservatives to the federal bench, end taxpayer funding for abortions and federal funding for Planned Parenthood, and support legislation that would make abortions performed after 20 weeks illegal.
The same five candidates also signed a different pledge promising to support constitutional amendments recognizing legal rights for the unborn.
Vander Plaats calls support for those issues the ?silver lining? of the divided evangelical electorate.
?In some ways, this has been our best caucus cycle ever,? he said.
E-mail Joe Garofoli at jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com.
Source: http://blog.chron.com/rickperry/2012/01/13041/
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